The Morning After STL

Week Three of The Hotshots Sports Bar & Grill Picks of The Week

Tim McKernan, Fri, 25 Sep 2015 05:00:00 GMT

Week Three of The Hotshots Sports Bar & Grill Picks of The Week
LAS VEGAS – This is just embarrassing.
If the great Americans at Hotshots Sports Bar & Gril weren’t sponsoring this column, I’d just shut it down at this point.
However, because they are, I’m obligated to come here and discuss the upcoming weekend of games, and my hideous 4-12 record so far.
I didn’t enjoy failing in Week One, but I kind of can accept it: you don’t who’s any good just yet. But, 2-6 in Week Two? Unacceptable.
0-2 in Locks of The Week?
Really dreadful.
Even worse is that I was 2-0 to start the weekend with UConn over Missouri and Notre Dame over Georgia Tech.
But, I then managed to lose six straight by picking Alabama over Ole Miss (which I would do again), Auburn over LSU (which I wouldn’t), the Rammies (which I acknowledged before picking the Rammies had The Seattle Effect and The Public Effect both on the Redskins’ side), the Bills over the Patriots (which I would do again as the public was all over New England), the Seahawks over the Packers (flip on that one), and my Lock of The Week Kentucky over Florida, which, candidly, I would also do again.
So, either I haven’t learned or I just ran bad.
It’s the same strategy I’ve used to give you better than 50% ATS over the last four years, but this year, we’re in trouble out of the gate. If I go 55% against the number this year, it’s going to take a major charge. Ideally, that charge begins this weekend, especially while I’m in Las Vegas and have some skin in the game.
Here’s a look at the standings through two weeks:
Producer Joe: 5-11 (3-5 last week)/2-0 Locks of The Week (1-0 last week)
Tim: 4-12 (2-6 last week)/0-2 Locks of The Week (0-1 last week)
Congratulations to our winner, Tyler Roper. He went 7-1. That’s especially impressive on a weekend full of upsets. For his efforts, he wins a $25 gift certificate to Hotshots Sports Bar & Grill.
You can play for free by picking the games we pick in the comments section below. You also have to pick a Lock of The Week using the latest spreads from Give the total points of the Rams and Steelers as the tiebreaker. Whoever does the best wins a $25 gift certificate to Hotshots Sports Bar & Grill.
Missouri at Kentucky (-3)
Producer Joe: Maybe I am just dumb and I am not taking everything I have seen into account from the first three games of the season, but I just don’t think Missouri is going to lose to Kentucky. Just don’t see it. Sure, this probably won’t end up being the prettiest game, but until Missouri’s defense is compromised I think they will be able to hang with the lower tier of SEC East teams. It’s not going to be high scoring, but Missouri is going to find a way to win this outright and therefore cover. Pick: Missouri (+3)
Tim: I honestly thought Missouri was favored, so much so that I had to go double check the spread. If I weren’t on such a cold streak, I’d be inclined to place a large wager on Missouri. It’s not that I think Missouri overall is great, by any means. It’s that I think their defense is outstanding, and Kentucky wasn’t as good as I thought after watching them play Florida. I hope I’m not jinxing this game straight up for the Tigers while I’m in my sports gambling death spiral. Pick: Missouri (+3)

Tennessee at Florida (Pick ̃em)
Producer Joe: I am not going to overthink this one. Maybe it just seems too good to be true and I will once again lose a college game. It won’t be anything new, hell, I didn’t win a single college game last week. Pick: Tennessee (Pick ̃em)
Tim: Tennessee is a pretty good team with a closing problem. I just don’t think much of Florida. Pick: Tennessee (Pick ̃em)
Utah at Oregon (-11)
Producer Joe: How bad is this weekend’s slate of games? This is the only Top 25 match-up of the week. That is why we are picking this game. What a terrible weekend of college football. Pick: Oregon (-11)
Tim: So I’m sitting here in Las Vegas all fired up to enjoy some college football de-genning all Saturday, and I see the schedule this weekend. Dreadful. @ProdJoe is right on how poor the schedule is this Saturday. So it goes. Pick: Oregon (-11)
Steelers (-1) at Rams
Producer Joe: I don’t want to say I called it, but I nailed it last week with the Rams. They are not capable of having nice things. Have the local fans somewhat interested after a good start to the season? Shit the bed in DC. Sorry, it’s not a mistake that this team hasn’t started 2-0 since 2001. Spend enough time in Earth City and you develop the anti-Midas touch, everything turns to shit. They are going to get there dicks rubbed in the dirt this weekend too. Pick: Steelers (-1)
Tim: Wow. This is going to put me to the test. If I weren’t in Las Vegas, it wouldn’t put me to the test. I could just make the pick, and let the theory give me a W in this department. But, here in Las Vegas, I can go downstairs and put my money where my mouth is and really ship it. What the hell am I talking about? Well, when I saw this number, I couldn’t believe it. If you would’ve asked me the spread before seeing it, with Le’Veon Bell returning, I would’ve guessed it would be in the ballpark of Steelers minus 4.5 to 6. So, it’s not a surprise to see that 85% of the public is on the Steelers. Despite my dreadful 4-12 record so far, I have to continue to do what has given me success over the years, and go against the public, like I should’ve done last weekend when the public was all over the Rams against the Redskins. Trust me, I know. It makes no sense. But, I’m picking the Rams here, and I’m going to have to put a small taste on them downstairs at the sports book. Pick: Rams (+1)
Eagles at Jets (-3)
Producer Joe: Bradford was awesome last weekend wasn’t he? I wanted to get that out of the way before I made my pick, because I don’t think the Eagles are going to start 0-3. But damn was he impressive. I am taking the points and think the Eagles win outright. Pick: Eagles (+3)
Tim: Disappointed @ProdJoe didn’t make a reference to Sammy Checkdown. Pick: Jets (-3)
Falcons (-1.5) at Cowboys
Producer Joe: No Romo, no Dez. Hate laying points on the road, but it’s a small enough number to feel alright. Pick: Falcons (-1.5)
Tim: 80% of the public money is on the Falcons. Considering the Cowboys are usually a public team, that’s really saying something. Pick: Cowboys (+1.5)
Locks of The Week
Producer Joe: Colts (-3) at Titans: Have I mentioned that I have started 2-0 in my Locks? Pick: Colts (-3)
Tim: Bears at Seahawks (-14.5): Have I mentioned that I have started 0-2 in my Locks? Pick: Seahawks (-14.5)
Now it’s your chance to partake in the fun and games. Pick the seven games we picked and your own Lock of The Week using the latest spreads from Give the total points of the Rams and Steelers as the tiebreaker. Whoever does the best is the winner of a $25 gift certificate to Hotshots Sports Bar & Grill.